Disclosure: I can’t stand either candidate. This ain’t an endorsement.
Prediction: Unless Trump has a major screw up of historic proportions, he will be the next president of the United States. He’s got a lousy campaign apparatus – which is another thing that could do him in – but it also seems he has unshakable support among his, well, supporters. Hillary could still win via the Electoral College and by making red states purple via the Latino vote, but that’s still a challenge.
As this article points from CNN points out, Trump had a difficult month. Campaign staff changes, high profile defection from experienced and seasoned Republicans, etc. But he still narrowed the gap. That says a lot.
From where I sit, the media talking heads still don’t get it. Trump’s support is based less on substance and more on emotion. And working class whites (mostly males) – an actual constituency and one that neither party has focused on or shown much concern for for decades – are pissed because they’ve seen their standards of living decrease over that same time.
Yes. I know. Non-whites, as a whole, have it worse off. I know. And I agree that overall, they have it worse off. That doesn’t mean blue collar whites without college degrees are doing well. Especially in swing states. Not at all.
I don’t blame Obama for that. Those trends started in the 1970’s.
Trump has 90% support from Republicans (Clinton has 92% support of Democrats) which puts to rest that there’s a ton of GOP defections. He’s got, in this poll, essentially a 5 to 3 advantage in independents (Trump 49% to Clinton 29%).
While Clinton does have the support of women overall (53% to 38%), she only has the support of 36% of married women – with 73% of unmarried woman going for her. She only has the support of 36% of married women. Trump has 53% of them. And I’m guessing that much of that 73% support will be concentrated in states that are already blue while the married women are more spread around. The fact that Clinton has less than 40% of married women is a huge negative for her.
To say the least, many people aren’t thrilled about these two. Count me in on that. But for Clinton, it’s worse. Of her likely voters, 5 out of 9 Hillary (55%) aren’t enthusiastic. Great work, Democrats. Great work, DNC. You got your candidate. For Trump, it’s a bit of the opposite. Fifty-six percent of his supporters are enthusiastic about the carnival barker.
Amazingly, Trump, who lies all the time, leads Clinton, who lies all the time, in rating as to whom is more honest (50% to 35%). How anyone thinks either one of these two candidates is honest is beyond me.
Oh, and whites that don’t have college degrees…the types of people so many of us college educated folks end up looking down upon (while being unable to relate to)…support Trump by a HUGE 68% to 24% margin.
I write that because I still think most pundits – left and right – still don’t grasp the angst and anger of America’s white working class.
All this, plus a potential end of October surprise where Wikileaks shows us that Putin in Russia or Kim Jong-un in North Korea or the Mullahs in Iran, now have a batch of Hillary Clinton’s emails from the State Department has me thinking that we’re going to elect a guy that – in my mind – is crude, rude, and who has no clue on any issues or as to how to maneuver within the political arena.
What a disaster of a campaign season